Following up on my previous essay, the debate last night was a stark validation of what I had written. We just watched the first meaningful debate of our lives, and President Trump absolutely trounced President Biden. The contrast was stark: Biden seemed incoherent at times, struggling to string together sentences, let alone articulate policy positions. Watching him on that stage felt like elder abuse – he is clearly not competent to be the President of the United States. Every moment he spent floundering highlighted his age and the cognitive decline that comes with it.
Trump, on the other hand, while sometimes veering into excessive attacks on his opponent, was far more coherent. He presented his points clearly and forcefully, likely winning over a significant number of voters. His ability to stay on message and project strength stood in stark contrast to Biden's evident frailty. If Biden were a horse, they would have euthanized him under a tent years ago
.The prediction markets reflect this shift. Currently, Manifold shows Donald Trump with a 59% chance of winning the election, while Joe Biden is at 27%. Before the debate, Trump was around 54% and Biden at 45%. Gavin Newsom now stands at 5%, and Kamala Harris at 3%. The numbers underscore the momentum building in Trump’s favor.
So, what happens next? The "hot swap" scenario I mentioned earlier this week seems more plausible than ever. Biden stepping aside for someone else – Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, or Michelle Obama, AOC, Elizabeth Warren – remains a possibility. However, this move is fraught with its own set of complications.
Kamala Harris is clearly an imbecile. There is no chance she could beat Trump. Her selection was based on her gender and skin color, and we’ve spent the past four years watching her flail around, accomplishing nothing. If the Democrats pass her over, it would effectively be admitting that she is a fool. But sticking with her almost guarantees a loss in the election.
Gavin Newsom is younger and more charismatic, but his track record in California is abysmal. The state is largely a mess, with significant numbers of people leaving for places with a more sensible regulatory climate. I saw speculation on Twitter that the streets of San Francisco will be spotless for the next few months to make Newsom look competent. However, this temporary facelift won’t erase years of mismanagement.
Persuading Biden to step aside will be difficult. Such a tough conversation likely needs to come from his family—outside advisors are not going to get through to him on this issue. Additionally, there are practical difficulties to surmount. The FEC does not make it easy to just transfer and deploy hundreds of millions of dollars of campaign funding and donations to another candidate.
And all of these egomaniac candidates – whether it's Gavin Newsom or any of the others – have deep policy differences. None of the ultra-left-wing candidates like AOC or Elizabeth Warren are electable. The Democrats are in a tough spot. They need a candidate who can compete with Trump’s energy and command of the stage, but their options are limited. The debate last night underscored the urgent need for a new direction in their campaign. Whether they can pull off a successful "hot swap" remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the vibes are strongly in favor of Trump right now.
I reiterate what I said previously: President Trump is going to win the election.