China's Economic Weakness

Debt, Demographics, and Technological Stagnation

China’s economy, once gushed over by countless “experts” for its supposedly unstoppable growth, is now staggering like a drunken giant. The signs are everywhere, most recently in the collapse of one-year bond yields to 1%—levels not seen since 2009. This flashing red signal screams recession, whether officially here or imminent, and utterly shatters the myth that Beijing’s bureaucrats can still throw a few trillion yuan at the wall and magically restore growth.

The situation is dire: insolvency plagues the banking system, government debt is 350% of reported GDP, a figure that might still be low if we’re honest about China’s “creative” accounting, and faith in Beijing’s next big stimulus package is fading fast.